What opportunities could the start of tariff negotiations between China and the United States generate for the global economy and Brazil?
Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary, and He Lifeng, Vice Premier of the People’s Republic of China (RPC), met last weekend (11 and 12 May) in Geneva, Switzerland. The meeting resulted in an agreement that provides for the temporary reduction of up to 115% of the current tariffs between the two countries, for a period of 90 days, starting on Wednesday (14). Under the agreement, tariffs on Chinese products will be reduced to 30%, while tariffs on U.S. products will fall to 10% (BBC News Brasil, 2025). As opportunities, the initiative signals the initial reopening of negotiation and trade channels between the US and PRC, a reduction in the trade war, and a reduction in internal political and economic instability on both sides.
The meeting between He Lifeng and Scott Bessent symbolizes the reopening, albeit at an early stage, of negotiation and trade channels between China and the United States. The PRC said that the resumption of dialogue takes into account not only national interests but also global interests. However, it warned that it “will never accept blackmail or coercion disguised as dialogue.” For its part, the United States emphasized that the initiative aims to “rebalance the international economic system” (G1, 2025). With the agreement still pending implementation, tensions between parties are expected to ease in the coming days.
The initiative also opens up the possibility of easing the trade war between China and the US. Reducing tariff confrontation is particularly important, given the intense trade relationship between the two countries. In 2024, the Asian country’s exports to the United States exceeded 500 billion dollars, while imports from the US totalled 143.5 billion dollars, resulting in a significant surplus for China. The main products exported by the Chinese include electronics and industrial components, while Americans mainly sell agricultural products, oil, natural gas, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors (UOL, 2025). Although still in the implementation phase, negotiations also represent a potential brake on the fragmentation of the global economy. Rigid geopolitical alignments and bloc negotiations tend to weaken multilateral trade, increasing the risk of disputes both in the economic sphere and in extreme scenarios in the military sphere.
Finally, negotiations also signal the potential easing of domestic political and economic tensions in both countries. In China, concern about the sharpest slowdown in industrial activity in the past 16 months has led the government to prepare a new round of monetary stimulus. In the United States, there was an economic contraction in the first quarter of the year, and many companies brought forward the purchase of goods before the official start of tariffs scheduled for the second quarter (Goldman, 2025). The start of negotiations, therefore, represents a positive step forward, since entrepreneurs, industries, and investors have been accumulating significant economic losses amid the unpredictability, a factor that could be mitigated by the reopening of a channel for dialogue between the two powers.
Given the recent agreement signed between China and the United States in Switzerland, which established the mutual reduction of tariffs for an initial period of 90 days, there is a strategic effort by both powers to contain the prolonged effects of their trade war. The resumption of dialogue signals a significant opening up of negotiating channels and represents momentary relief for the global economy. In this scenario, Brazil must strategically position itself as a reliable and proactive player in international trade, strengthening its global presence in sectors such as agricultural products, oil, gas, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, segments in which the United States has faced tariff barriers imposed by China. In addition to expanding its exports, the country must take advantage of the windows of opportunity created by the temporary reconfiguration of global trade chains, deepen relations with affected markets, and reinforce its commitment to diversifying partnerships and defending multilateralism, avoiding rigid alignment with any one pole.
References
BBC News Brasil. “China e EUA entram em acordo sobre tarifas; entenda”. BBC News Brasil, May 12, 2025. https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/articles/c4gr2q4vx42o.
Goldman, David. “EUA e China iniciam negociação para conter guerra comercial nesta semana”. CNN Brasil, May 7, 2025. https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/economia/macroeconomia/eua-e-china-iniciam-negociacao-para-conter-guerra-comercial-nesta-semana/.
UOL. “China e EUA vão negociar ‘tarifaço’ em meio a temores de guerra comercial”. UOL, May 7, 2025. https://economia.uol.com.br/noticias/redacao/2025/05/07/negociacao-comercial—china-e-eua.htm.
* Glauco Winkel is a researcher on China and Southeast Asia at the Laboratory of Geopolitics, International Relations and Anti-Systemic Movements (LabGRIMA) and an associate researcher at the Centre for Studies in Geopolitics and International Relations (CENEGRI).
