Palestra Dr. Bob Cechet and Dr. Augusto Sanabria

O Programa de Pós-Graduação em Modelagem Matemática convida a toda a comunidade para assistir ao seminário “Australian National Wind Risk Assessment (NWRA): Quantifying wind hazard and risk under current and future climate” a ser realizado nesta quarta-feira (03/06/2015) às 14h30, na sala 111 do prédio 16 do IFM. Os ministrantes serão os Drs. Cechet e Sanabria, da Universidade de Canberra. Um resumo da palestra e um breve CV dos palestrantes segue no final desta mensagem.

Australian National Wind Risk Assessment (NWRA):

Quantifying wind hazard and risk under current and future climate

Bob Cechet¹ and Augusto Sanabria²

¹ School of Physical, Environmental and Mathematical Sciences, University of New South Wales, AustralianDefenceForceAcademy, Canberra, Australia

² Facultad de Ingenieria, Universidad Nacional delNordeste (UNNE), Resistencia, Argentina email: bob.cechet@adfa.edu.au , asanabria@ing.unne.edu.ar

The Australian National Wind Risk Assessment (NWRA), a collaborative study between Geoscience Australia and the Federal Government (Dept. Climate Change and Energy Efficiency), has developed a computational framework to evaluate both the wind hazard and risk due to severe wind gusts (based on modelling techniques and application of the National Exposure Information System; NEXIS). A combination of tropical cyclone, synoptic and thunderstorm wind hazard estimates is used to provide a revised estimate of severe wind hazard across Australia. This hazard modelling utilises both current-climate information and also simulations forced by IPCC climate change scenarios, which are employed to determine how wind hazard will be influenced by climate change.

Results from the current climate regional wind hazard assessment are compared with the hazard based on the existing understanding as specified in the Australian/New Zealand Wind Loading Standard (AS/NZS 1170.2, 2011). Regions were mapped where the design wind speed depicted in AS/NZS 1170.2 is significantly lower than the hazard analysis provided by this study. Regions requiring more immediate attention regarding the development of adaptation options are discussed in the context of the minimum design standards in the building code regulations.

A national assessment of localised wind speed modifiers including topography, terrain and the built environment (shielding), has also been undertaken to inform the local wind speed hazard that causes damage to structures. Wind speed modifiers are incorporated through a statistical modification of the regional wind speed. We report on an assessment of severe impact and wind risk to residential houses across the Australian continent (quantified in terms of annualised loss). In addressing future climate scenarios of regional severe wind hazard, we consider the changing nature of severe wind risk focusing on the Southeast Queensland and Tasmanian regions and, illustrate where the wind loading standard becomes inadequate at a specified future time.

These techniques are being utilised at the Universidad Nacional del Nordeste (UNNE) in Argentina, where a team led by Prof. Bruno Natalini aims to update the map of return-period severe winds for northern Argentina. The impact of climate change on extreme winds for this part of the world is being considered using climate modelling undertaken by INPE (Sao Paulo). Preliminary work in this area will also be presented.

About the Presenters:

Prof. Robert (Bob) Cechet

Bob Cechet is a Senior Lecturer at the University of Canberra and an Adjunct Professor at the School of Physical Environmental and Mathematical Sciences within the University of New South Wales (Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra). Bob is a member of the Executive of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society as well as being a member of the Australian Standards committee on Wind Loading (utilized by the Building Codes of Australia; BCA). Prior to becoming an academic he was a researcher with the Australian Government for 33 years having worked for the following organizations; Bureau of Meteorology, Antarctic Division, CSIRO and Geoscience Australia.

Bob worked at CSIRO Marine & Atmospheric Research for 17 years contributing to work on climate projections and focusing in later years on climate change impacts from extreme events.

This was followed by 10 years with Geoscience Australia focusing on climate-related natural hazards; specifically extreme wind events and bushfires.Bob lead a team that mapped severe wind hazard and risk for the Australian region including the consideration of climate change:

Sanabria, L.A. and R.P. Cechet, Assessing synoptic wind hazard in Australia utilising climate-simulated wind speeds. Wind and Structures, 2012;15(2):131-145

 ftp://ftp.atdd.noaa.gov/pub/cwe2010/Files/Papers/236_Cechet.pdf

http://www.researchgate.net/publication/237842546_Assessing_synoptic_wind_hazard_utilising_climate-simulated_wind_speeds http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2011/F7/cechet.pdf

Bob recently led a team of 26 researchers (2009-13) in delivering a prototype firespread simulation system (based on ensemble weather forecasting) for application by Australian fire agencies:

 http://www.bushfirecrc.com/projects/2-1/risk-assessment-decision-toolbox https://digitalis.uc.pt/en/livro/firedst_simulation_system_short_term_ensemble_modelling_bushfire_spread_and_exposure  http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2013/A3/french.pdf

Bob continues to actively develop strategic directions for bushfire risk assessment within the Emergency Management sector as well as providing intellectual and scientific leadership for natural hazard and risk modelling through the development of models and tools that advance national risk assessment for bushfire and severe wind hazard and risk.

Prof. Augusto Sanabria

Augusto Sanabria is an Australian researcher until recently affiliated to the Community Safety and Earth Monitoring Division of Geoscience Australia and to the Faculty of Engineering, Universidad Nacional delNordeste (Argentina) as a visiting professor.

Augusto’s first degree is in Electrical Engineering from a Colombian University. He has postgraduate studies in Electrical Engineering (M.Sc. University of London) and in probabilistic modelling (Ph.D. Monash University, Australia). The topic of his doctoral dissertation was the development of a probabilistic model to study the production costing of an electrical power system. After emigrating to Australia in 1981, Augusto worked in the State Electricity Commission of Victoria as a planning engineer for 10 years. Subsequently, he worked in a number of universities in Victoria (Australia) developing probabilistic models to study complex system reliability and fires in buildings. In the last 10 years Augusto has been with Geoscience Australia, a scientific agency of the Australian government dedicated to study the geophysics and geology of the Australian continent including mineral exploration. The agency also studies natural phenomena which have the potential to produce disasters such as earthquakes, cyclones, thunderstorms, flood and forest fires.

At the Universidad Nacional delNordeste (UNNE) in Argentina, Augusto is collaborating on a project led by Prof. Bruno Natalini which aims to update the map of return-period severe winds for northern Argentina. The impact of climate change on extreme winds for this part of the world will be studied using the techniques developed in Australia utilising climate modelling undertaken by INPE. Preliminary work in this area will be presented as part of the presentation.

Augusto’s webpage can be found here: http://www.researchgate.net/profile/L_Sanabria