As the present world order weakens, the mega confrontations have appeared more likely: The Sino-American relations are increasingly adversarial, with escalating frictions over trade, advanced technology, human rights, and global strategic influence.<\/p>\n
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Currently, both sides \u2013 as president of the US Council of Foreign Relations Richard Haass states: \u201c\u2026are developing scenarios for a possible war<\/em>\u2026\u201d The two countries rhetoric has grown so hostile that its speed and severity is unprecedented for the post WWII period, rather belonging to the forgotten vocabulary of 1910s and 1930s. (E.g. referring to PRC as \u2018Country of Kung Flu\u2019 or to the US as\u2018trigger happy nation\u2019; calling the C-19 \u2018China virus\u2019 or \u2018US Army brought pathogen\u2019; China\u2019s Foreign Ministry Spokesman referring to the US leadership as \u2018Elements deluded by the Capitol Hill metastasis\u2019 while the US State Secretary calls the Chinese Communist Party \u2018rogue actor\u2019, and then in return Secretary Pompeo gets proclaimed as \u2018the public enemy of mankind\u2019 \u2013 just to name but few from the long list of heavy verbal fire exchanges between thetwo.)<\/p>\n Strategic decoupling between the biggest manufacturer of North-American goods \u2013 China, and its largest consumer \u2013 the US seems inevitable.<\/p>\n It also appears increasingly irreversible, no matter if the change of leaders in Beijing or in Washington may or may not happen beyond 2020.<\/p>\n Of course, many would reject the above as an overstatement and author\u2019s alarmism. To this end, let us state some facts:<\/p>\n Extensive trading is not deterrent<\/strong>: Trade is an instrument of power not a virtue per se<\/em>. (The case of the UK and Germany in the eve of the WWI, and of Japan and the US in 1941, are the most known, in the series of such examples starting with the Peloponnese, Trojan and Punic wars through Napoleonic wars and Continental blockade <\/em>all the way up to modern times, when nations were \u2018sleepwalking\u2019 strait into a major mutually devastating and lasting armedconflict.);<\/p>\n Absence of nuclear parity deterrent\u00a0 in Asia<\/strong>, region that hosts by far the largest number of nuclear powers \u2013 2 legitimate, 3 declared, 1 undeclared and at least 2 states with the credible delivery systems and N-ready \u2018turn- key\u2019technology.Noneofthemisevenbyitsquantities,qualities,configurations and delivery capabilities \u2013 which makes the First strike<\/em>doctrine tempting.)<\/p>\n The erosion of the world order<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n Diminishing international order due to a combination or either of the following:<\/p>\n The modern-day China in the geopolitical imagination is portrayed as once-upon-a-time Imperial Germany \u2013 an illiberal opaque power that misuses liberal system on its unchecked quest for world domination. Collision course is fanned irrespectively from a fact that there are no overlapping territorial claims or even common borders, and despite an unprecedented interconnectivity and mutually brought prosperity.<\/p>\n Confrontation is not only geo-economic but also an ideological \u2013 liberal world of against an authoritative system.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Although the new US President is in place, it would be foolish to expect any policy reversal. The new administration will see China the same way: Not as a dangerous (economic-trade) rival, but as a geopolitical foe.<\/p>\n Is this yet another author\u2019s alarmism?<\/p>\n Biden presidency will be one of the weakest in the past 100 years<\/em><\/strong>. It is indeed a Pyrus victory: Trump got few million votes more now than in 2016 (i); Senate is controlled by Republicans (ii); angry Trump electorate is deeply convinced that the victory has been stolen from them, and will be further galvanizing enlarging noising and tilting to the right in the following 4 years (iii); the blue-collar America firmly believes China steals their jobs \u2013 and none on the Democratic left even attempted to refute that. Hence, Biden\u2019s four years in office (if) will be marked by alienation from those electing him, and by pure agony of cohabitation with stifling Republicans. Administration will remain paralyzed for any reversed yet fresh policy formulation.<\/p>\n Finally, history of the US bipartisanism teaches us that traditionally Democrats were opening wars while Republicans were closing them. Overstatement? Mind also that for nearly past 150 years, Trump presidency was the only 4-year period that Americans did not start a single war. Many now believe, it is a high time to recuperate and compensate.<\/p>\n Ergo, a change in the White House \u2013 paradoxically enough \u2013 will not slow down the ongoing strategic decoupling and to it compulsory global re-alignment, but on contrary; it will only accelerate its speed and severity.<\/p>\n To be sure; only a measurable success in the US-led de-Chinisation of the West will determine how far (and how long) will take the ongoing de-globalization, and if the second phase will be a reversibility, a re-globalization of the world.<\/p>\n It was expected that by the end of 2020s, Asian economies will be larger than the rest of world\u2019s economies combined. Africa-Middle East are to come up next. Of course, that was only a prediction made before C-19 and the sudden Sino- American rift. Or this was the origin of that rift? \u2013 It is still to be seen.<\/p>\n The imposed global re-alignment will hit particularly hard<\/em><\/strong> \u2013regions like the South East Asia, Africa, and Latin America from a prosperous meeting point of goods, cultures and ideas to the politico-military default lines. This painful readjustment may last for decades to come. Opting for either side will not only impact economy trade and security but will also determine the societal model, too.<\/p>\n The Indo-Pacific, \u2018The Quad\u2019<\/strong>, initiative (from Horn of Africa to East Pacific coast) is not viable policy response to the age of global realignment. Why resort to an imperial tactic? Why not assuming a more autonomous and prudent strategic orientation?<\/p>\n All this forces us to rethink the best of tradition of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM)<\/strong> which saved the world from the past irresponsibilities and frictions of the two confronted blocks (in the Cold War) that contested each other all over the globe fordecades.<\/p>\n The nations of the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and Latin America, host to historic South-South summits, champions of multilateralismand many founding members of NAM, should not exhaust their thinking and foreign action in this regard, they should not be subordinated to beingmeresde facto<\/em> Maginot Lines, they should lead a renewedThird Way.<\/p>\n Between confrontation and Bandwagoning, it is time for a true multilateralism and peaceful coexistence pivotal principles of the NAM, the global Movement that gave for many and for so long a security shelter and a voice, and sense of quest for a self-realisation ofmankind.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n Prof. Anis H. Bajrektarevi\u0107 <\/em><\/strong>is chairperson and professor in international law and global political studies, in Vienna, Austria. He has authored seven books (for American and European publishers) and numerous articles on, mainly, geopolitics energy and technology.<\/em><\/p>\n The Professor is editor of the NY-based GHIR (Geopolitics, History and Intl. Relations) journal, and editorial board member of several similar specialized magazines on three continents. His 8th book, \u2018No Asian Century\u2019 is scheduled for winter 2020-21.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" As the present world order weakens, the mega confrontations have appeared more likely: The Sino-American relations are increasingly adversarial, with escalating frictions over trade, advanced technology, human rights, and global strategic influence.<\/p>\n
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FUTURE <\/u><\/h3>\n