{"id":2301,"date":"2025-07-07T08:00:52","date_gmt":"2025-07-07T11:00:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wp.ufpel.edu.br\/labgrima\/?p=2301"},"modified":"2025-07-07T17:38:09","modified_gmt":"2025-07-07T20:38:09","slug":"guerra-algoritmica-no-oriente-medio-o-fim-do-controle-humano-por-vitoria-de-aquino","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wp.ufpel.edu.br\/labgrima\/2025\/07\/07\/guerra-algoritmica-no-oriente-medio-o-fim-do-controle-humano-por-vitoria-de-aquino\/","title":{"rendered":"Guerra Algor\u00edtmica no Oriente M\u00e9dio: o fim do controle humano? por Vict\u00f3ria de Aquino"},"content":{"rendered":"

A intensifica\u00e7\u00e3o dos conflitos assim\u00e9tricos no Oriente M\u00e9dio, particularmente entre os dias 9 e 23 de junho de 2025, tem sido marcada pela crescente incorpora\u00e7\u00e3o de sistemas aut\u00f4nomos letais e dispositivos cibern\u00e9ticos de interfer\u00eancia adaptativa ao campo de batalha. <\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Na S\u00edria, especificamente nas regi\u00f5es de Idlib e Aleppo, conforme registros do Associated Press e da Arab News confirmaram o emprego de drones com padr\u00e3o de ataque aut\u00f4nomo contra ve\u00edculos em deslocamento, resultando na morte de pelo menos um civil e ferimentos em outros tr\u00eas (AP News, 2025). A tipologia dos vetores empregados sugere a utiliza\u00e7\u00e3o de aeronaves t\u00e1ticas n\u00e3o tripuladas com capacidade de recalibra\u00e7\u00e3o de trajet\u00f3ria em tempo real \u2014 atributo compat\u00edvel com a plataforma V2U-L (vers\u00e3o russa modernizada do Lancet).<\/span><\/p>\n

Paralelamente, no golfo de \u00c1den e no Mar Vermelho, os Houthis intensificaram ataques com drones FPV (First Person View) e m\u00edsseis de cruzeiro programados com l\u00f3gica adaptativa, segundo registros navais da MarineTraffic e relat\u00f3rios militares sauditas. Termos em que o Departamento de Estado norte-americano acusou formalmente a empresa chinesa Chang Guang Satellite Technology de fornecer imagens de alta resolu\u00e7\u00e3o a rebeldes Houthis no I\u00eamen, usadas para orientar ataques contra embarca\u00e7\u00f5es no Mar Vermelho \u2014 inclusive de interesses americanos. Embora a Chang Guang negue envolvimento, a gravidade desta a\u00e7\u00e3o reside na integra\u00e7\u00e3o entre intelig\u00eancia espacial aut\u00f4noma e efetiva\u00e7\u00e3o de vetores t\u00e1ticos, operando em espectro escalonado dos tradicionais meios b\u00e9licos.<\/span><\/p>\n

No plano da guerra h\u00edbrida, foi registrado um aumento expressivo de interfer\u00eancias por meio de ataques por de <\/span>spoofing<\/span><\/i> e <\/span>jamming<\/span><\/i> nos sinais GNSS no Estreito de Ormuz e no Golfo de Om\u00e3, afetando 928 embarca\u00e7\u00f5es, sobretudo pr\u00f3ximas a terminais petrol\u00edferos iranianos, comprometendo sistemas cr\u00edticos de navega\u00e7\u00e3o e comunica\u00e7\u00f5es mar\u00edtimas baseadas em sat\u00e9lite (Barlavento, 2025). <\/span>Spoofing<\/span><\/i> refere-se \u00e0 emula\u00e7\u00e3o maliciosa de sinais GNSS, induzindo alvos a receber coordenadas falsas, enquanto <\/span>jamming<\/span><\/i> consiste na satura\u00e7\u00e3o deliberada do espectro de r\u00e1dio para interromper ou degradar comunica\u00e7\u00f5es e navega\u00e7\u00e3o por sat\u00e9lite.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Com o agravamento das disputas no Golfo P\u00e9rsico, o representante iraniano, na 110\u00aa reuni\u00e3o do Comit\u00ea de Seguran\u00e7a Mar\u00edtima \u2014 \u00f3rg\u00e3o subsidi\u00e1rio da Organiza\u00e7\u00e3o Mar\u00edtima Internacional (OMI) \u2014, em 13 de junho de 2025, acusou Israel de conduzir ataques cibern\u00e9ticos e f\u00edsicos direcionados a infraestruturas energ\u00e9ticas diretas no Golfo P\u00e9rsico, incluindo o Campo de G\u00e1s South Pars, caracterizando-os como viola\u00e7\u00f5es dos tratados internacionais e amea\u00e7as \u00e0 seguran\u00e7a mar\u00edtima.<\/span><\/p>\n

Em car\u00e1ter preliminar, o Secret\u00e1rio-Geral da OMI, Ars\u00e9nio Dominguez, aduziu a necessidade de fortalecer a coopera\u00e7\u00e3o internacional para mitigar amea\u00e7as cibern\u00e9ticas no ambiente mar\u00edtimo, recomendando a ado\u00e7\u00e3o do Sistema de Interc\u00e2mbio de Dados de Frequ\u00eancia Muito Alta (VDES), capaz de operar em frequ\u00eancias alternativas para garantir a continuidade operacional em cen\u00e1rios de interfer\u00eancia intencional, demandando respostas integradas para salvaguardar a integridade das rotas mar\u00edtimas vitais ao com\u00e9rcio global de energia.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nesse contexto, a proje\u00e7\u00e3o geopol\u00edtica para o m\u00e9dio prazo (2025\u20132032) transcorre um cen\u00e1rio de fragmenta\u00e7\u00e3o do monop\u00f3lio estatal sobre a guerra e o surgimento de “coaliz\u00f5es algor\u00edtmicas”: agrupamentos informais de Estados e grupos armados que compartilham modelos preditivos, imagens orbitais e plataformas armadas inteligentes como capital estrat\u00e9gico. Infere-se ainda que o controle das opera\u00e7\u00f5es passa progressivamente a depender da superioridade em infer\u00eancia aut\u00f4noma e da capacidade de adapta\u00e7\u00e3o cibern\u00e9tica militar em tempo real, deslocando o protagonismo decis\u00f3rio da presen\u00e7a humana para sistemas automatizados. Em consequ\u00eancia disso, a normatividade internacional concebida para regular conflitos sob a \u00e9gide de atores estatais dotados de controle humano direto, tende a se tornar anacr\u00f4nica \u2014 ou mesmo obsoleta \u2014 caso n\u00e3o seja urgentemente reformulada diante de um paradigma b\u00e9lico em que decis\u00f5es de \u201cvida ou morte\u201d s\u00e3o delegadas \u00e0 m\u00e1quinas ou sistemas automatizados, frequentemente com supervis\u00e3o humana parcial ou inexistente.<\/span><\/p>\n

Refer\u00eancias<\/b>:<\/span><\/p>\n

ARAB NEWS. Syria rescuers say two killed in drone strikes on northwest. Arab News, 11 jun. 2025. Dispon\u00edvel em: <\/span>https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/2604089\/oriente-m%C3%A9dio<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

ASSOCIATED PRESS. Editorial photos and videos. AP Newsroom. Dispon\u00edvel em: <\/span>https:\/\/newsroom.ap.org\/editorial-photos-videos\/detail?itemid=c91a0aba25564729a51321cf6879d93a<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

DEUTSCHE WELLE BRASIL. Syria: Suicide drones increasingly targeting civilians. DW, 14 mar. 2024. Dispon\u00edvel em: <\/span>https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/syria-suicide-drones-increasingly-targeting-civilians\/a-68514185<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS. Conflict in Syria. Global Conflict Tracker, Center for Preventive Action, 14 mai. 2025. Dispon\u00edvel em: <\/span>https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/global-conflict-tracker\/conflict\/conflict-syria<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

SUD.UA.<\/b> \u0412\u044b\u0431\u0438\u0440\u0430\u0435\u0442 \u0446\u0435\u043b\u0438 \u0441 \u043f\u043e\u043c\u043e\u0449\u044c\u044e \u0438\u0441\u043a\u0443\u0441\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0438\u043d\u0442\u0435\u043b\u043b\u0435\u043a\u0442\u0430: \u0432 \u0413\u0423\u0420 \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0443\u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438\u043b\u0438 \u043e \u043d\u043e\u0432\u043e\u043c \u0440\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0439\u0441\u043a\u043e\u043c \u0434\u0440\u043e\u043d\u0435 V2U<\/span><\/i>. Sud.ua, 9 jun. 2025. Dispon\u00edvel em:<\/span> https:\/\/sud.ua\/ru\/news\/ukraine\/333130-vybiraet-tseli-s-pomoschyu-iskusstvennogo-intellekta-v-gur-predupredili-o-novom-rossiyskom-drone-v2u<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Reuters. Red Sea marine traffic up 60% after Houthis narrowed targets, EU commander says. 5 jun. 2025. Dispon\u00edvel em: <\/span>https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/red-sea-marine-traffic-up-60-after-houthis-narrowed-targets-eu-commander-says-2025-06-05\/<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Financial Times. US says Chinese company is helping Houthis target American warships. 17 abr. 2025. Dispon\u00edvel em: <\/span>https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/628b404b-2a24-4853-8f3c-9caad408ef8f<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Global Times. Chinese satellite company refutes US accusation of supporting Houthi attack on US interests as \u2018completely fabricated\u2019. 19 abr. 2025. Dispon\u00edvel em: <\/span>https:\/\/www.globaltimes.cn\/page\/202504\/1332436.shtml<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Wall Street Journal. The Chinese Satellite Firm Washington Accuses of Helping U.S. Foes. 17 abr. 2025. Dispon\u00edvel em: <\/span>https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/world\/china\/the-chinese-satellite-firm-washington-accuses-of-helping-u-s-foes-b5e68d2e<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

WINDWARD.<\/b> GPS jamming in the Arabian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz disrupts 970 ships daily<\/span><\/i>. Windward Intelligence, 18 jun. 2025. Dispon\u00edvel em: <\/span>https:\/\/windward.ai\/blog\/middle-east-on-the-precipice-gps-jamming-in-the-arabian-gulf-and-strait-of-hormuz-disrupts-970-ships-daily\/<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

PORT TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL.<\/b> GPS jamming disrupts hundreds of vessels in Strait of Hormuz<\/span><\/i>. Port Technology, 19 jun. 2025. Dispon\u00edvel em: <\/span>https:\/\/www.porttechnology.org\/news\/gps-jamming-disrupts-hundreds-of-vessels-in-strait-of-hormuz\/<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

FINANCIAL TIMES.<\/b> GPS interference raises risk of accidents in Strait of Hormuz<\/span><\/i>. Financial Times, 20 jun. 2025. Dispon\u00edvel em: <\/span>https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/ac3c571f-2c4e-4c57-b582-21e2b27170f8<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

REUTERS.<\/b> Iran says production at world’s largest gas field partly suspended after Israeli attack<\/span><\/i>. Reuters, 14 jun. 2025. Dispon\u00edvel em: <\/span>https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/iran-says-production-worlds-largest-gas-field-partly-suspended-after-israeli-2025-06-14\/<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

BREAKBULK NEWS.<\/b> IMO Maritime Safety Committee opens with call for stronger compliance amid rise in incidents<\/span><\/i>. Breakbulk News, 13 jun. 2025. Dispon\u00edvel em: <\/span>https:\/\/breakbulk.news\/imo-maritime-safety-committee-opens-with-call-for-stronger-compliance-amid-rise-in-incidents\/<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

GOV.IL.<\/b> Statement by PM Netanyahu – 24 June 2025<\/span><\/i>. Dispon\u00edvel em: <\/span>https:\/\/www.gov.il\/en\/pages\/statement-by-pm-netanyahu-24-jun-2025<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANIZATION (IMO).<\/b> IMO calls for tangible action after UN Ocean Conference<\/span><\/i>. 17 jun. 2025. Dispon\u00edvel em: <\/span>https:\/\/www.imo.org\/en\/MediaCentre\/PressBriefings\/pages\/UNOC-IMO-Call-for-tangible-action.aspx<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

SCHULER, Mike.<\/b> Strait of Hormuz Shipping Holds Steady Despite Tanker Collision, Widespread Electronic Jamming<\/span><\/i>. gCaptain, 18 jun. 2025. Dispon\u00edvel em:<\/span> https:\/\/gcaptain.com\/strait-of-hormuz-shipping-holds-steady-despite-tanker-collision-widespread-electronic-jamming\/<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

STEWART, Phil; ALI, Idrees.<\/b> Yemen’s Houthis likely to be persistent problem for US, senior military official says<\/span><\/i>. Reuters, 24 jun. 2025. Dispon\u00edvel em:<\/span> https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/yemens-houthis-likely-be-persistent-problem-us-senior-military-official-says-2025-06-24\/<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

* Vit\u00f3ria de Aquino \u00e9 pesquisador no LabGRIMA<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A intensifica\u00e7\u00e3o dos conflitos assim\u00e9tricos no Oriente M\u00e9dio, particularmente entre os dias 9 e 23 de junho de 2025, tem sido marcada pela crescente incorpora\u00e7\u00e3o de sistemas aut\u00f4nomos letais e dispositivos cibern\u00e9ticos de interfer\u00eancia adaptativa ao campo de batalha.<\/p>

Continue lendo<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":636,"featured_media":1486,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[75,21,28,1],"tags":[108,4,47],"class_list":["post-2301","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-expert-opinions","category-labgrima-expert","category-news","category-noticias","tag-ciberseguranca","tag-geopolitica","tag-new-order","nodate","item-wrap"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/wp.ufpel.edu.br\/labgrima\/files\/2023\/08\/pexels-tima-miroshnichenko-5380642-scaled-e1751827716650.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.ufpel.edu.br\/labgrima\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2301","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.ufpel.edu.br\/labgrima\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.ufpel.edu.br\/labgrima\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.ufpel.edu.br\/labgrima\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/636"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.ufpel.edu.br\/labgrima\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2301"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/wp.ufpel.edu.br\/labgrima\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2301\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2312,"href":"https:\/\/wp.ufpel.edu.br\/labgrima\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2301\/revisions\/2312"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.ufpel.edu.br\/labgrima\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1486"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.ufpel.edu.br\/labgrima\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2301"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.ufpel.edu.br\/labgrima\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2301"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.ufpel.edu.br\/labgrima\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2301"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}